Net cash out-/inflow from cash settled futures (“ICE Brent Crude futures contract”)

How to calculate the expected liquidity net cash outflow/inflow from a future contract with daily variation margin and an expected final cash settlement?

The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on Exchange Futures for Physical (EFP) delivery with an option to cash settle. The vast majority do not claim for EFP delivery, but instead take the advantage of the option to cash settle at expiry. All open contracts are marked-to-market daily. Please see details in the attached document.   According to Article 20(2) Delegated Act LCR “Liquidity inflows and liquidity outflows shall be assessed over a 30 calendar day stress period, under the assumption of a combined idiosyncratic and market-wide stress scenario as referred to in Article 5”.   Referring to derivatives Article 21 Delegated Act LCR states that “credit institutions shall calculate liquidity outflows and inflows expected over a 30 calendar day period for the contracts listed in Annex II of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 on a net basis by counterparty subject to the existence of bilateral netting agreements in accordance with Article 295 of that Regulation.” According to Article 30(4) Delegated Sct LCR “credit institutions shall take outflows and inflows expected over 30 calendar days from the contracts listed in Annex II of Regulation (EU) No 575/2013 into account on a net basis in accordance with Article 21. In the case of a net outflow, the credit institution shall multiply the result by 100 % outflow rate.”   However, it is not fully clear how to calculate the net cash outflows/inflows from the above future contract under stress assumptions. To calculate the net cash outflows/inflows by the entire contract value of the respective derivative, which are expiring within 30 days, does not seem to make sense in most cases because the vast majority does not claim for EFP delivery. Yet a more realistic approach for a net cash outflow calculation for cash-settled futures could be based on all expected aggregated outflows/inflows from the marked-to-market valuation (daily variation margin) under stress assumptions.